Dasatinib or Nilotinib Followed by Imatinib in Patients With Newly Diagnosed, Chronic Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiamyeloidchroniccancercells
  Phrases that lowered it: subjecttrialbloodsubjectshealth
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 320 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9413 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Study Comparing the Effect of Dasatinib and Imatinib on Malignant Stem Cells in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia NCT00852566 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib and Imatinib Mesylate in Treating Patients With Early Chronic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia NCT00769327 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Evaluating Dasatinib Therapy Discontinuation in Patients With Chronic Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia With Stable Complete Molecular Response NCT01850004 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Dasatinib Combo With Smoothened (SMO) Antagonist (BMS-833923) NCT01357655 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nilotinib as First Line Treatment in Philadelphia Chromosome Positive(Ph+) Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) NCT01274351 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.