Study Comparing Adapalene/BP Gel to EPIDUO® FORTE and Both to a Placebo Control in Treatment of Acne Vulgaris
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-03-31, after 2015-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: activediagnosisplacebo controlledbpstudy participation
Phrases that lowered it: acnevulgarisgelbioequivalencehealthy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 712 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 272 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- adapalene, adapalene benzoyl peroxide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Comparing Test to Aczone 5% and Both to a Placebo Control in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02929719 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of IDP-126 Gel to Epiduo® Forte Gel and Vehicle Gel NCT04892706 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing Test to Aczone 7.5% and Both to a Placebo Control in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT03132194 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study in Patients With Acne Vulgaris. NCT02935036 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Bioequivalence Study of Two Treatments in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris on the Face NCT03393494 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.