New Formulations of Propafenone to Treat Atrial Fibrillation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-04-30, after 2016-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hearttransplantationventricularcardiacfibrillation
Phrases that lowered it: asthmadrugparticipantsadministrationcomparison -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 222 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 222 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 39 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3130 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 692 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- propafenone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- First Line Radiofrequency Ablation Versus Antiarrhythmic Drugs for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Treatment (RAAFT-3) NCT04037397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- INhalation of Flecainide to Convert Recent Onset SympTomatic Atrial Fibrillation to siNus rhyThm (INSTANT) NCT03539302 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- EPLERAF-Study: Eplerenone in the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrences After Cardioversion NCT00647192 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Adenosine to Assess Complete Conduction Block During Catheter Ablation of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation NCT03032965 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of HSY244 in Participants With Atrial Fibrillation NCT04582409 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.