A Proof-of-Concept Study Assessing NEO6860 in Osteoarthritis Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bonepainpatients withtreatedii
  Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritiscrossoverclinically significantkg
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14707 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V120083 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT03028870 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Capsaicin Patches In Knee Osteoarthritis In Obese Patients NCT03153813 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of Intra-articular CNTX-4975-05 (Capsaicin) vs Placebo in Subjects With OA Knee Pain NCT03429049 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-42160443 in Patients With Moderate to Severe, Chronic Knee Pain From Osteoarthritis NCT01094262 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare Levels of Capsaicin After Intra-Articular Injection and Topical Application in Patients With Painful Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03576508 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.