Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Brachial Plexus Block With EXPAREL in Shoulder Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomaconcurrentmetastatictype
  Phrases that lowered it: kgbodypharmacokineticsdrugor female
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Femoral Nerve Block With EXPAREL in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02713178 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of EXPAREL, EXPAREL Admixed With Bupivacaine HCl vs. Bupivacaine HCl Administered as Combined Sciatic and Saphenous Nerve Blocks for Postsurgical Analgesia in Subjects Undergoing Lower Extremity Surgeries NCT04518462 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• PK Study of EXPAREL in Subjects Undergoing Open Spinal Fusion or Reconstructive Surgery NCT02985762 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Phase 3, Sciatic Nerve Block With EXPAREL for Subjects Undergoing Bunionectomy NCT05157841 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Adductor Canal Block With EXPAREL in Subjects Undergoing Primary Unilateral Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT05139030 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.