Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of the VRC01 Antibody in Reducing Acquisition of HIV-1 Infection Among Men and Transgender Persons Who Have Sex With Men

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellspregnancygreaterthe safetysubject
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmavolunteersmildparticipantvolunteer
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1080 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of the VRC01 Antibody in Reducing Acquisition of HIV-1 Infection in Women NCT02568215 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Serum Concentrations of a Human Monoclonal Antibody, VRC-HIVMAB075-00-AB (VRC07-523LS), Administered in Multiple Doses and Routes to Healthy, HIV-uninfected Adults NCT03387150 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of VRC07-523LS in the Sera and Mucosae of Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adult Participants NCT03735849 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Anti-Viral Activity of VRC01 and VRC01LS in the Serum and Mucosa of Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults NCT02797171 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiviral Activity of the Monoclonal Antibody PGT121.414.LS Administered Alone and in Combination With VRC07-523LS Via Intravenous or Subcutaneous Infusions in Healthy, HIV-uninfected Adult Participants NCT04212091 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.