Effect of Lu AF35700 in Patients With Treatment-resistant Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningschizophreniasymptomsdouble blindmay apply
  Phrases that lowered it: trialpatientsweeksadequateaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 95422 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23476 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Lu AF35700 in Patients With Early-in-disease or Late-in-disease Treatment-resistant Schizophrenia NCT03230864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability Study of Lu AF35700 After Repeated Dosing in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT02202226 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study Investigating the Effect of Lu AF35700 on Cardiac Repolarization in Men and Women With Schizophrenia and Schizoaffective Disorder NCT02901587 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Flexible-dose, Long-term Safety Study of Lu AF35700 in Adult Patients With Schizophrenia NCT02892422 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study With Lu AF11167 for the Treatment of Negative Symptoms in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT03793712 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.