Phase II Study of Ramucirumab With Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Gastroesophageal Junction and Gastric Cancer

NCT02726399 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 2 Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (academic or other) Started 2016-03-18 Terminated

Riskier than 51% of active trials

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

How it ended

Terminated on 2019-02-26, after 2016-03-18 start.

Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustpurpose ofbrainstagedisease
Phrases that lowered it: trialbleedingaspiringastriconce daily
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 116 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
Sponsor's past trials: 419 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 77431 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase: 2
Number of arms: 1 (typical: 2)
Allocation: not applicable (typical: randomized)
Design: single group (typical: parallel)
Primary purpose: treatment
Blinding: none
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party: sponsor
Collaborators: 0
Keywords listed: 6 (typical: 1)

Who can join

Minimum age: 18
Maximum age: not given (typical: 71)
Sex: all
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type: academic or other
Sponsor's past trials: 419 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 116 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (typical: 1)
Drug has FAERS history: Yes (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 77431 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10660 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas: cancer, digestive
Drugs matched to FDA substances: capecitabine, cisplatin, ramucirumab, trastuzumab

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

Ramucirumab Plus Irinotecan for Previously Treated Advanced Gastric or Gastro-esophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT03141034 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
A Phase 1b/2 Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AUR103 Calcium in Patients With HER2-positive Advanced Gastric/Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT07040059 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
Ramucirumab Plus FOLFIRI Versus Ramucirumab Plus Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer, Who Failed One Prior Line of Palliative Chemotherapy NCT03081143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Pembrolizumab Plus Ramucirumab in Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT04632459 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
TAS 102 in Combination With Ramucirumab in Advanced, Refractory Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) Adenocarcinoma NCT03686488 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.