Complement Inhibitor Eculizumab in Clinical Islet Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantationcellchildtransplantrecipient
  Phrases that lowered it: centrecontraceptivepatientsdays beforediabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3664 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of IBsolvMIR in Islet Transplantation NCT03867851 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Pancreatic Islet Cell Transplantation - A Novel Approach to Improve Islet Quality and Engraftment NCT00530686 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Trial Comparing Metabolic Efficiency of Islet Graft to Intensive Insulin Therapy for Type 1 Diabetes's Treatment NCT01148680 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Reparixin in Pancreatic Islet Transplantation NCT01220856 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Autologous Adult Stem Cells to Patients With Type 1 Diabetes and a Successful Renal Transplant NCT00788827 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.