A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT009 Compared to PT005 on COPD Exacerbations Over a 52-Week Period in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD (Sophos)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyreceivingrandomized doubledocumentedin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: copdand safetyefficacy andlung cancerpatients who
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of PT001, PT003, and PT005 Following Chronic Dosing (7 Days) in Patients With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01085045 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of PT009 Compared to PT005, PT008, and Symbicort® Turbuhaler® on Lung Function Over 24-Weeks in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD NCT02766608 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT010 Relative to PT003 and PT009 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD (Ethos) NCT02465567 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of PT003, PT005, and PT001 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD); (PINNACLE 1) NCT01854645 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• PT005 MDI Dose Ranging Versus Foradil Aerolizer Study NCT01349868 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.