Dendritic Cell/Myeloma Fusion Vaccine for Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 1401)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-12-09, after 2016-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplanttherapyrandomizationhearthours
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoaminotransferasevaccineprotocolthe upper -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 293 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 293 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 107994 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 27551 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lenalidomide, melphalan, sargramostim
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Stem Cell Transplant With Lenalidomide Maintenance in Patients With Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 0702) NCT01109004 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Bendamustine in Combination With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Refractory or Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT01042704 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Myeloma GM-CSF Vaccine With Lenalidomide in Multiple Myeloma Patients in Complete or Near Complete Remission NCT03376477 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
- Upfront Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell to Upgrade Response in Multiple Myeloma NCT05032820 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic GM-CSF Vaccine and Lenalidomide in Treating Myeloma Patients With Near Complete Remission NCT01349569 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.