SinuSurf vs. Saline Solution in Normal Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-01-20, after 2016-04-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantsurgerytherapyorgandisease
Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetysafety ofsinglesubjects -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 65 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- SynRinse Irrigation Pilot (SIP) Trial NCT03154541 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Nitric Oxide Releasing Sinus Irrigation (NOSi) to Treat Recalcitrant Chronic Rhinosinusitis (RCRS) NCT04163978 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Xylitol for Chronic Sinusitis NCT03229551 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Steroid-Releasing S8 Sinus Implant for Recurrent Nasal Polyps NCT01732536 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Topical Irrigation Therapy for CRS NCT02630472 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.