Topical Composition Therapy (2013-MCN-333) for the Treatment of Melasma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityof studybirthtreatment ofentry
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalparticipantsmethodsgoodmoderate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 640 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Eflornithine Hydrochloride Cream in the Treatment of Melasma: A Randomized, Double-blinded, Split-face Controlled Study NCT06957834 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Simultaneous Treatment Regimen Compared to a Sequential Treatment Regimen With Ingenol Mebutate Gel 0.015% and 0.05% of Two Areas With Actinic Keratosis on Face/Scalp and Trunk/Extremities NCT01787383 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• An Equivalence Study of Generic Ingenol Mebutate Gel 0.015% and Picato Gel 0.015% in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis NCT03200912 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of a 4% Hydroquinone Cream for the Treatment of Melasma NCT02095990 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• To Compare Safety and Efficacy of Perrigo's Drug Compared to an FDA Approved Drug in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT02459795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.