Topical Delivery of Vitamin D3 as Vitamin D Supplementation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-30, after 2016-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: deficiencyweightstudycontrolledrandomized
Phrases that lowered it: participantstopicalnormalpatients withhouse -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 123963 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 123963 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24019 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D Levels Following Topical Application of Vitamin D Ointment NCT02676674 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Importance of Dosing Regimen for the Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation NCT03272126 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Prospective, Multi-center Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Vitamin D3 B.O.N. Intramuscular Injection in Adults With Vitamin D Deficiency NCT02443246 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy and the Safety of Vitamin D3 30,000 IU for Loading Dose Schedules NCT04476511 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D 24'000 IU for Oral Intermittent Supplementation NCT03920150 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.