Trial Ruxolitinib and Peg-interferon Alpha-2a Combination in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis RUXOPeg

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (32 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningnegativedialysisventriculareffective
  Phrases that lowered it: patientssafetymultipledosesefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 59032 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21181 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib in the Treatment of Anemic Myelofibrosis Patients. NCT02966353 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study: An Open-Label, Randomized, Phase 2 Dose-Finding Study of Pacritinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, or Post- Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT04884191 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Ruxolitinib Pre-, During- and Post-HSCT for Patients With Primary or Secondary Myelofibrosis. NCT03427866 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Ruxolitinib and Pomalidomide Combination Therapy in Patients With Primary and Secondary MF NCT01644110 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.