Simvastatin in Reducing Pancreatitis in Patients With Recurrent, Acute or Chronic Pancreatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-11, after 2016-09-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbreaststatinsmalldl
Phrases that lowered it: acutetrialamlodipinedetermined byadvanced -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1056 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21062 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1056 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 148 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 151515 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21062 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- simvastatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Simvastatin in Preventing Liver Cancer in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis NCT02968810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Simvastatin in the Prevention of Recurrent Pancreatitis NCT04021498 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- High-dose HMG-CoA Inhibitor Simvastatin Relapsed CLL NCT00828282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pravafenix Cap to Verify the Superiority Than Atorvastatin NCT02166593 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Simvastatin Addition for Patients With Recent-onset Schizophrenia NCT01999309 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.