RItuximab Versus FUmarate in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Sclerosis.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: rituximabsclerosismsmultipleinclusive
  Phrases that lowered it: severevaccinationpatientsmriline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90070 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Evaluating Rebif, Copaxone, and Tysabri for Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01058005 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Double Blind Combination of Rituximab by Intravenous and Intrathecal Injection Versus Placebo in Patients With Low-Inflammatory Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (RIVITaLISe) NCT01212094 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Rituximab Induction Therapy Followed by Glatiramer Acetate NCT01569451 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Daclizumab in Participants With RRMS Switching From Natalizumab NCT02881567 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• MS Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of Two Doses of Fingolimod Versus Copaxone NCT01633112 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.