Failure of Vaginal Delivery After Induction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-11-30, after 2016-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicstrokeagehalfcatheter
Phrases that lowered it: patientsreceivetabletwith historycompare -
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- not given (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10018 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1155 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- misoprostol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vaginal Misoprostol and Foley Catheter for Induction of Labor NCT02952807 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Is More Than One Dose of Misoprostol Needed to Expedite Vaginal Delivery in a Patient With an Unripe Cervix? NCT02680314 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Vaginal Misoprostol for Cervical Ripening and Induction of Labor NCT01428037 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Efficacy & Safety Study Comparing Misoprostol Vaginal Insert (MVI) Versus Dinoprostone Vaginal Insert (DVI) for Reducing Time to Vaginal Delivery NCT01127581 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Mifepristone for Labor Induction NCT05097326 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.