Lung-MAP: Durvalumab as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Recurrent Stage IV Squamous Cell Lung Cancer and No Matching Biomarkers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcellsquamousdiseasebowel
  Phrases that lowered it: insulin28aminotransferase14 daysdiabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lung-MAP: Taselisib as Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage IV Squamous Cell Lung Cancer and Positive Biomarker Matches NCT02785913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Trial Of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy In Combination With MEDI4736 And Tremelimumab For Patients With Metastatic Melanoma And Lung, Breast And Pancreatic Cancers NCT02639026 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• DNA Plasmid-encoding Interleukin-12/HPV DNA Plasmids Therapeutic Vaccine INO-3112 and Durvalumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Human Papillomavirus Associated Cancers NCT03439085 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Lung-MAP: Palbociclib as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Cell Cycle Gene Alteration Positive Patients With Recurrent Stage IV Squamous Cell Lung Cancer NCT02785939 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibition (Tremelimumab and/or MEDI4736) in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02311361 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.