A Study to Detect V-Raf Murine Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homolog B1 (BRAF) V600 Mutation on Cell-Free Deoxyribonucleic Acid (cfDNA) From Plasma in Participants With Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomametastaticstageunresectablecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsjointlabelopenscreening
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: screening (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 889 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Vemurafenib in Previously Treated Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT00949702 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Vemurafenib (Zelboraf) in Chinese Participants With BRAF V600 Mutation-Positive Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01910181 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety Study of Vemurafenib Followed by Ipilimumab in Subjects With V600 BRAF Mutated Advanced Melanoma NCT01673854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Vemurafenib or Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Participants With BRAFV600-Mutation Positive Metastatic Melanoma NCT01656642 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Vemurafenib in Participants With BRAF V600 Mutation-Positive Cancers NCT01524978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.