MEK162 in Combination With Capecitabine in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-01-07, after 2016-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: prostatecancerpsapatientadenocarcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: mgtransplantpositivetestmonths -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 323 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 323 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 177 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 32246 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3295 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- binimetinib, capecitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- First Line Gemcitabine, Cisplatin and MEK162 in Advanced Biliary Tract Carcinoma NCT01828034 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- NGS as the First-line Treatment in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04172402 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- A Study of S-1 in Combination With Gemcitabine as First-Line Treatment in Patients With Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT02425137 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine With/Out Capecitabine in Locally Advanced, Unresectable, or Metastatic Biliary Cancer NCT00658593 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Gemcitabine and Cetuximab in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer: A Multicenter Phase II Study NCT00747097 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.