Sorafenib Alone Versus Sorafenib Combined With HAIC for Advanced HCC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-08-31, after 2016-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: sorafenibtumorbrainhccmetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetyevaluate thehepaticthe efficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 79463 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 89 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 133 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 79463 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12769 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, sorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Sorafenib Plus Hepatic Arterial Infusion Versus Sorafenib for HCC with Major Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis NCT03009461 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- HAIC Plus Sorafenib Versus TACE Plus Sorafenibfor Advanced HCC NCT02856126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Phase II Trial of Sorafenib Combined With Concurrent HAIC for Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT02981498 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib VS TACE in HCC Patients With Portal Vein Invasion NCT01480817 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- TACE and Sorafenib for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT00618384 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.