Preoperative Oral Methadone for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: Reduction of Postoperative Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cardiacpainsurgeryopioidtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: consumptionoralabuseecgallergy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 21283 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Measuring the Amount of Methadone or Morphine in the Blood of Neonates, Infants & Children After Cardiac Surgery. NCT01094522 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Dosing of Methadone for Spine Surgery NCT03605901 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Opioid-free Anesthesia for Open Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial NCT04197570 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Local Anesthetic Infusion and Sternotomy NCT00802048 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Perioperative Pregabalin for Reducing Opioid Consumption After Cardiac Surgery NCT04517110 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.