Gene-Modified T Cells, Vaccine Therapy, and Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Stage IV or Locally Advanced Solid Tumors Expressing NY-ESO-1

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsbrainpsoriasisventricularheart
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmultiplebasedthe investigatorthe trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 220978 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 44227 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Gene-Modified T Cells, Vaccine Therapy, and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Malignancies NCT02070406 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Genetically Engineered PBMC and PBSC Expressing NY-ESO-1 TCR After a Myeloablative Conditioning Regimen to Treat Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT03240861 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Modified T Cells, Chemotherapy, and Aldesleukin With or Without LV305 and CMB305 in Treating Participants With Advanced or Recurrent Sarcoma NCT03450122 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• T Cell Receptor Immunotherapy Targeting NY-ESO-1 for Patients With NY-ESO-1 Expressing Cancer NCT01967823 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes After Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01807182 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.