A Phase 1b Study of MEDI4920 in Participants With Adult-onset Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: onsetascendingsafety tolerabilityplacebo controlledtolerability pharmacokinetics
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsparticipantsrarheumatoidadult
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VIB4920 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT04163991 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI5117 in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT01559103 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• Study of Two Doses of ABX464 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03813199 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Adults and Adult Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Multiple Doses of ABT-494 NCT01741493 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity in Participants Between 18 to 75 Years of Age Treated With Subcutaneous (SC) Injections of ABBV-154 for Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT04888585 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.