Neoadjuvant Androgen Deprivation Therapy Plus Abiraterone With or Without Apalutamide for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcardiacriskpriorhigh
  Phrases that lowered it: prostateand safetyefficacy andthe efficacy20
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 233361 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 42400 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Abiraterone Acetate in Male Participants With Prostate Cancer NCT00924469 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Neo-adjuvant Abiraterone + Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Versus LHRH in Prostate Cancer NCT01088529 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study of Apalutamide (Adjuvant Treatment) and Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) in Participants Who Have Undergone Radical Prostatectomy (RP) for Non-metastatic Prostate Cancer and Who Are at High Risk for Metastases NCT04523207 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Neo-adjuvant Abiraterone Prostate Study NCT02160353 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Anti-Androgens and Cabazitaxel in Defining Complete Response in Prostatectomy (ACDC Trial) NCT02543255 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.