Oral Dexamethasone for the Treatment of Acute Migraine Recurrence in the Pediatric Emergency Department
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-06-28, after 2016-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: migrainediabetesmellitusheadto determine
Phrases that lowered it: ulceradultpatientspepticstudy will -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85952 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20270 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 8 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 85952 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20270 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- RCT of IV Dexamethasone to Prevent Relapse in the Treatment of Migraine in a Paediatric ED NCT02903680 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Clinical Trial of a New Neuromodulation Device for Acute Attacks of Migraine in Children and Adolescents NCT05102591 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Erenumab in Pediatric Subjects With Chronic Migraine NCT03832998 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- A Study of Lasmiditan (LY573144) Treatment in Children Aged 6 to 17 With Migraine NCT04396236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
- A Pilot Study of Intranasal Lidocaine in Acute Management of Pediatric Migraine NCT03806595 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.