Tipifarnib in Subjects With Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia, Other MDS/MPN, and Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicsubjects withleukemiacancerconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatorfemaleaccordingfoodmale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tipifarnib in Subjects With Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02779777 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• First-in-Human Study of FLX925 in Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02335814 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Study of PLX2853 in Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT03787498 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of Azacitidine in Combination With Pembrolizumab in R/R AML Patients and in Newly Diagnosed Older Patients NCT02845297 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study of Gilteritinib (ASP2215) Combined With Chemotherapy in Children, Adolescents and Young Adults With FMS-like Tyrosine Kinase 3 (FLT3)/Internal Tandem Duplication (ITD) Positive Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT04240002 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.