A Biomarker-Directed Phase 2 Trial of Tamibarotene (SY-1425) in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartcardiacpriorcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantasthmafev1monotherapy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 45.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tamibarotene Plus Venetoclax/Azacitidine in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT04905407 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Movement of Lemzoparlimab in Body When Used Intravenously (IV) With Azacitidine Subcutaneously or IV and Venetoclax Orally in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and With Azacitidine With or Without Venetoclax in Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT04912063 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Study of TAS1553 in Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Other Myeloid Neoplasms NCT04637009 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• A Study of TAS1440 With ATRA in Subjects With r/r AML NCT04282668 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Study of TCP-ATRA for Adult Patients With AML and MDS NCT02273102 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.