3BNC117 and 10-1074 in HIV-infected Individuals
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-08-15, after 2016-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellscell1bsubjects withcoronary
Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedcopies mlantiretroviralpharmacokineticscd4 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 48 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 3BNC117 and 10-1074 in HIV Uninfected Adults NCT02824536 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1, Open Label, Dose-escalation Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Antiretroviral Activity of 3BNC117 NCT02018510 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- 3BNC117-LS and 10-1074-LS in Viremic HIV-infected Individuals NCT04250636 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Safety and Antiretroviral Activity of 3BNC117 NCT02588586 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Antiretroviral Activity of 10-1074 NCT02511990 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.