A Feasibility Study of Niraparib for Advanced, BRCA1-like, HER2-negative Breast Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastaticmetastasesstem
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsplatinumpaincontraceptivereceived
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1985 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Niraparib Plus Aromatase Inhibitors for Luminal-like(HER2-,ER+) and gBRCA or HDR+ Metastatic Breast Cancer (LUZERN) NCT04240106 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• BMN 673 (Talazoparib), an Oral PARP Inhibitor, in People With Deleterious BRCA1/2 Mutation-Associated Ovarian Cancer Who Have Had Prior PARP Inhibitor Treatment NCT02326844 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Veliparib in Treating Patients With Malignant Solid Tumors That Do Not Respond to Previous Therapy NCT00892736 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and Tolerability of Niraparib With Everolimus in Advanced Gynecologic Malignancies and Breast NCT03154281 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• The Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Antitumor Activity of BGB-A317 in Combination With BGB-290 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02660034 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.