Efficacy and Safety Study of GSK1278863 in Japanese Hemodialysis Subjects With Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Not Taking Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsdialysisscreeningkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsbilirubinevaluateefficacy andand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2282 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 226 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study of GSK1278863 in Japanese Non-dialysis (ND) and Peritoneal Dialysis (PD) Subjects With Renal Anemia NCT02791763 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• 4 Week Correction Study in Subjects With Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Not Undergoing Dialysis NCT01587898 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Three-times Weekly Dosing of GSK1278863 in Hemodialysis-dependent Subjects With Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Switched From a Stable Dose of an Erythropoiesis-stimulating Agent NCT02689206 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of GSK1278863 in Recombinant Human Erythropoietin (rhEPO) Hyporesponsive Hemodialysis-dependent Chronic Kidney Disease Subjects With Anemia NCT02075463 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Repeat Dose Safety and Efficacy Study for Compound to Treat Anemia NCT01047397 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.