The Effect of BMS-986142 on the Pharmacokinetics of a Combined Oral Contraceptive (OC) Containing Ethinyl Estradiol (EE) and Norethindrone Acetate (NET) in Healthy Female Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancervaccinationwomen ofvaccineregimen
  Phrases that lowered it: healthythe pharmacokineticsclinically significanteffect ofthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 524 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Characterize the Drug Levels of an Oral Contraceptive With and Without BMS-986166 in Healthy Female Participants of Childbearing Potential NCT04934696 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Drug-drug Interaction of BMS-986196 With Oral Contraceptives in Healthy Female Participants NCT05891262 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Drug-drug Interaction Study Between BMS-663068 and Oral Contraceptives in Healthy Female Volunteers (DDI) NCT02480881 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• The Effect of BMS-986165 Combined With an Oral Contraceptive (Ethinyl Estradiol/Norethindrone) in Healthy Female Patients NCT03262727 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effects of BMS-986278 on Drospirenone and Ethinyl Estradiol Drug Levels in Healthy Female Participants NCT05985590 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.