Use of an Experimental Drug, CC-115, With Enzalutamide in Men With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainheartmetastaticstudy druguncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: prostateregistrationnormalthis trialsafety
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 112 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 428 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cabazitaxel Versus the Switch to Alternative AR Targeted Therapy Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Primary Resistant Patients to Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT02379390 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Combining CRLX101, a Nanoparticle Camptothecin, With Enzalutamide in People With Progressive Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer Following Prior Enzalutamide Treatment NCT03531827 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Enzalutamide With Venetoclax in Treating Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03751436 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.