BRAF/MEK Inhibition in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (BIRMA)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-29, after 2016-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellpatients mustcancerbowelchronic
Phrases that lowered it: multiplecoronarymm3evaluate theto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- binimetinib, encorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Bortezomib,Lenalidomide,Dexamethasone & Elotuzumab in Newly Diagnosed MM NCT02375555 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Trial of MP0250 Plus Bortezomib + Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT03136653 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Cyclosporine in Combination With Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone in Relapsed Multiple Myeloma Refractory to Carfilzomib and High Expression of PPIA Gene in Myeloma Cells NCT04813653 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Safety, Tolerability and Clinical Activity of GSK2857916 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (RRMM) NCT03848845 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study Of Panobinostat/Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dex for Relapsed And Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01965353 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.