A Randomized, Double-Blind Phase II Study of Adjuvant Pembrolizumab Versus Placebo in Head and Neck Cancers at High Risk for Recurrence- the PATHWay Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: and neckhead andradiationsquamouscell
  Phrases that lowered it: triallesionsinfluenzasystemicsubjects
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 267 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5573 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab in HNSCC With Residual Disease After Radiation NCT02892201 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• The Addition of Pembrolizumab to Postoperative Radiotherapy in Cutaneous Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck NCT03057613 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Patients With Poor-Prognosis Carcinoma of Unknown Primary Site (CUP) NCT03391973 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab for the Treatment of Recurrent High Grade Neuroendocrine Carcinoma NCT03190213 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Immunotherapy With Non-Ablative Radiation in Previously Untreated Patients With Stage IV NSCLC NCT05691829 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.