A Phase 2 Open-label Pilot Study Evaluating MYK-461 in Subjects With Symptomatic Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy and Left Ventricular Outflow Tract Obstruction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularleftatrialfibrillationlong
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningopen labelpharmacokineticsvisitevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of MYK-224 in Participants With Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT05556343 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MYK-461 NCT02329184 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Extension Study of Mavacamten (MYK-461) in Adults With Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Previously Enrolled in PIONEER NCT03496168 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of CK-3773274 in Adults With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT04219826 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aficamten Compared to Placebo in Adults With Symptomatic oHCM NCT05186818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.