Study to Evaluate BIIB059 (Litifilimab) in Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus (CLE) With or Without Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubjects withlupuschronicin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluatethe efficacyand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CHABLIS7.5: A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous Blisibimod in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus With or Without Nephritis NCT02514967 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• CHABLIS-SC1: A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous Blisibimod in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT01395745 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single Doses and Multiple Doses of BIIB059 (Litifilimab) in Healthy Volunteers and Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02106897 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study to Evaluate BMS-986165 in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03252587 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Baricitinib in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE-BRAVE II) NCT03616964 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.