Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of PF-06649751 in Parkinson's Disease Patients at Early Stage of the Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-01-29, after 2016-10-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pfstageearlychronicacute
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe efficacyinvestigate thestudy to -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 1616 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- not given (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1616 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 158 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of PF-06649751 in Parkinson's Disease Patients With Motor Fluctuations NCT02687542 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of PF-06649751 in Subjects With Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02373072 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety And Tolerability Study In Subjects With Parkinson's Disease NCT02006290 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- PF-06669571 In Subjects With Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02565628 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- PF 06412562 in Subjects With Advanced Stage Parkinson's Disease NCT03665454 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.