A Dose-finding Study of CC-90009 in Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Relapsed or Refractory Higher-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantsubjects within subjectscellrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelrelapsedmgclinicalaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1b Master Trial to Investigate CPX-351 in Subjects With Previously Untreated Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04075747 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• CPX-351+GO in Subjects 55 Years Old, or Older, With AML NCT03878927 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of CC-91633 (BMS-986397) in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Relapsed or Refractory Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT04951778 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Study of CPX-351 Versus 7+3 in Patients 60-75 Years Old With Untreated High Risk (Secondary) Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01696084 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of CC-90009 Combinations in Subjects With Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04336982 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.