Evaluating the Immunogenicity of the AIDSVAX B/E Vaccine and the MVA/HIV62B Vaccine in Healthy, HIV-1-Uninfected Adults Who Previously Received MVA/HIV62B in DNA/MVA or MVA/MVA Regimens in HVTN 205

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsdetermineplaceboventricularcare
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmablood pressureparticipantsinfluenzahealthy
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1113 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety and Immunogenicity of an HIV Vaccine (gp145 C.6980) in Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults in the United States NCT03382418 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immune Response to a Clade C DNA HIV Vaccine NCT02997969 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Immunogenicity of Env (A,B,C,A/E)/Gag (C) DNA and gp120 (A,B,C,A/E) Protein/GLA-SE HIV Vaccines, Given Individually or Co-administered, in Healthy, HIV-1-Uninfected Adults NCT03409276 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of a Prime-Boost Regimen of HIV-1 Nef/Tat/Vif, Env pDNA Vaccine Delivered Intramuscularly With Electroporation and HIV-1 rVSV envC Vaccine in Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults NCT02654080 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Immune Response to Three Different DNA HIV Vaccines Administered With a MVA-CMDR Boost Vaccine in Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults NCT02296541 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.