Selonsertib in Combination With Prednisolone Versus Prednisolone Alone in Participants With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis (AH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in subjectsgisubjects withtransplantationdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscombinationchronic hepatitisaminotransferaseindividuals
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 62474 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10986 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 299 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Short Course Steroids in Alcohol Associated Hepatitis NCT06919458 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of MG in the Patients With Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Alcoholic Hepatitis NCT02019056 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib in Adults With Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03053063 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GS-4997 Alone or in Combination With Simtuzumab (SIM) in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Fibrosis Stages F2-F3 NCT02466516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• FXR Effect on Severe Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis (FRESH) Study NCT05639543 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.