Percocet vs. Bupivicaine for Toothaches in the ED
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-08-01, after 2016-08-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsexcludedbleedingstudy drugeligible
Phrases that lowered it: oralthe studycompare theto compareefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 293552 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 67133 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- acetaminophen, acetaminophen oxycodone, oxycodone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intranasal Fentanyl as an Adjunct to Lidocaine Infiltration in Adults Undergoing Abscess Incision and Drainage NCT03872700 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Comparing the Efficacy of Oral Opioids for Outpatient Acute Pain Management After ED Discharge Discharge NCT01402375 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Effect of Preoperative Tramadol and Naproxen Sodium on Post Operative Pain NCT05982392 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Study of Tramadol Hydrochloride/Acetaminophen SR Tab. & Tramadol Hydrochloride/Acetaminophen Tab. in Acute Toothache Patients After Teeth Extraction Surgery NCT01920386 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Pre-emptive Analgesic Administration in Primary Tooth Extraction NCT03786029 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.