Ibrutinib in Previously Untreated Binet Stage A Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia With Risk of Disease Progression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study to Assess Activity & Safety of Front-line Ibrutinib + Rituximab in Unfit Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia NCT02232386 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of the Combination of Tirabrutinib and Idelalisib With and Without Obinutuzumab in Adults With Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) NCT02968563 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• DNA Plasmid Encoding a Modified Human Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase (hTERT), Invac-1 in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia NCT03265717 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Intravenous BI 836826 in Combination With Ibrutinib in Relapsed/Refractory CLL Patients Who Have Been Pre-treated With at Least One Prior Line of Systemic Therapy, and Who Are Eligible for Treatment With Ibrutinib NCT02759016 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of the Combination of Tirabrutinib and Entospletinib With and Without Obinutuzumab in Adults With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) NCT02983617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.