Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Oral Ubrogepant in the Acute Treatment of Migraine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebocancerbowelcelltype
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theparticipantsthe efficacyto evaluatewill evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability Study of Oral Ubrogepant in the Acute Treatment of Migraine NCT02828020 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Oral Ubrogepant in the Acute Treatment of Migraine During the Prodrome in Adult Participants NCT04492020 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Drug- Drug Interaction Study of Ubrogepant With Erenumab or Galcanezumab in Participants With Migraine NCT04179474 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of Ubrogepant in the Treatment of Migraine NCT02873221 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study To Assess Adverse Events and Drug to Drug Interaction of Oral Tablet Atogepant and Ubrogepant in Adult Participants With a History of Migraine NCT04818515 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.