Durvalumab and Tremelimumab and Best Supportive Care vs Best Supportive Care in Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerrandomizationcolorectaladjuvant
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsreceivedinvestigatorcontainingdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Tumor Tissue Testing in Selecting Treatment for Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT00975897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Efficacy Study of NUC-3373 in Combination With Standard Agents Used in Colorectal Cancer Treatment NCT03428958 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Sym004 Versus Futuximab or Modotuximab in Patients With mCRC NCT03549338 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Botensilimab + Balstilimab vs Best Supportive Care as Therapy in Chemo-refractory, Unresectable, Colorectal Adenocarcinoma NCT07152821 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy And Safety Of Xeliri + Avastin Followed By Xelox + Avastin Or Reverse Sequence In Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02119026 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.