Efficacy Study of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab or Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy Against Chemotherapy in Stomach Cancer or Stomach/Esophagus Junction Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycanceradvancedacutetumor
  Phrases that lowered it: gastriclightlabelopento compare
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 121938 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23068 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy in Subjects With Esophageal Cancer Treated With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab or Nivolumab Combined With Fluorouracil Plus Cisplatin Versus Fluorouracil Plus Cisplatin NCT03143153 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• S-1+Oxaliplatin vs.S-1+Cisplatin First-line Treatment of Advanced or Recurrent Non-intestinal Type Gastric Adenocarcinoma Patients NCT01824459 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Andecaliximab Combined With Nivolumab Versus Nivolumab Alone in Adults With Unresectable or Recurrent Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT02864381 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab and Trastuzumab in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin in Patients With HER2 Positive Locally Advanced Resectable Gastric Cancer of Adenocarcinoma of Gastroesophageal Junction NCT04661150 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) as First-Line Monotherapy and Combination Therapy for Treatment of Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma (MK-3475-062/KEYNOTE-062) NCT02494583 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.