MMV390048 POC in Patients With P. Vivax and P. Falciparum Malaria
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-09-24, after 2017-10-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hoursulnand totalheadto determine
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticssingletrialclinicalinvestigate -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 44 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- MMV390048 Against Early Plasmodium Falciparum Blood Stage Infection in Healthy Participants NCT02281344 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
- DSM265 Phase IIa Investigation Treating Plasmodium Falciparum or Vivax NCT02123290 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- MMV533 Plasmodium Falciparum Volunteer Infection Study NCT05205941 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of SJ733 in Adults With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum or Vivax Malaria NCT04709692 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- DSM265 Chemoprophylaxis of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT02450578 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.