Inhaled Beta-adrenergic Agonists to Treat Pulmonary Vascular Disease in Heart Failure With Preserved EF (BEAT HFpEF): A Randomized Controlled Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularfractionejectionleftheart failure
  Phrases that lowered it: inhaledtrialevaluateplaceborandomized
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 191 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 669 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 102682 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 27246 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sildenafil in HFpEF (Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction) and PH NCT01726049 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Hemodynamic Evaluation of Levosimendan in Patients With PH-HFpEF NCT03541603 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• REGN5381 in Heart Failure Adult Participants With Elevated Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure NCT05353166 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Bosentan in Patients With Diastolic Heart Failure and Secondary Pulmonary Hypertension NCT00820352 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Treatment of PH With Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker and Neprilysin Inhibitor in HFpEF Patients With CardioMEMS Device NCT04753112 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.