Phase 2a Study to Evaluate the Safety/Tolerability and Efficacy of TOP1288 200 mg Rectal Solution Once Daily for 4 Weeks in Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitiskeyulcerativeto severedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluaterandomisedonce dailymg
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study for Safety and Tolerability of TOP1288 Administered Rectally in Healthy and Ulcerative Colitis Subjects NCT02463045 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• TID 1000 mg Mesalazine Versus TID 2x500 mg Mesalazine in Active Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT01745770 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• TP05 for the Treatment of Mild to Moderate Active Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT01903252 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Telotristat Etiprate (LX1606) in Participants With Acute, Mild to Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT01456052 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Effects of GLPG3970 Given as an Oral Treatment for 6 Weeks in Adults With Ulcerative Colitis NCT04577794 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.